Highlights
- Examining predictors of short- and long-term achievement in higher education (HE)
- Impact of secondary education (SE) programmes on HE achievement diminishes in the context of long-term achievement
- Impact of HE programmes on HE achievement remains consistent
- Cognitive variables measured at the end of SE are less impactful in long-term achievement
- End of SE background variables (gender & SES) are more impactful in long-term achievement
Abstract
This study investigates the influence of secondary education (SE) and higher education (HE) study programmes on both the short-term (one year) and long-term (three years) academic achievement of HE students. It also examines the impact of various background, cognitive, and non-cognitive factors, controlling for SE and HE programmes. Based on a representative dataset (N = 24,183), this study employs cross-classified multilevel models with a random interaction effect between SE and HE levels. Results show that both SE and HE study programmes impact short- and long-term achievement in HE. The impact of SE programmes is smaller on long-term achievement, while that of HE programmes remains stable. Notably, the alignment between SE and HE programmes, is increasingly important in the long run. The study also highlights that background, non-cognitive and cognitive factors significantly predict academic achievement in both time frames, with important variations in their impacts on short- and long-term outcomes.
Educational relevance statement
Having a clear perspective on the key determinants of academic achievement in higher education (HE) is crucial to support students during their difficult transition to HE. The present study addresses important gaps in the existing literature by analysing the influence of secondary education (SE) and higher education (HE) programmes on both short- and long-term academic achievements of HE students. It also examines the impact of a wide range of background, cognitive, and non-cognitive factors on these academic achievement measures, controlling for the effects of SE and HE programmes. The study reveals several important findings, among which: (1) An included interaction term between random variances at the SE and HE programme levels (in a cross-classified multilevel model) increasingly predicts academic achievement over time, suggesting the necessity of aligning SE and HE programmes. This is particularly relevant for SE administrators and counsellors developing study choice guidance trajectories for students; (2) There is evidence of a cumulative effect of SES risk factors in HE, with the influence of these background variables on academic achievement intensifying over time; (3) Cognitive and non-cognitive factors assessed at the end of SE significantly influence academic performance over a three-year period in HE, in addition to their impact on short-term academic achievement. This underscores the predictive validity of these measures and underscores their inclusion in online assessment tools designed to support SE students intending to pursue HE.
Full-text: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1041608025000731?dgcid=coauthor
Willems, J., Heeren, J., Ramos, A., Dirix, N., Verschueren, K., Duyck, W., De Wachter, L., Lacante, M., Van Cauwenberghe, S., Demulder, L., Vanoverberghe, V., Donche, V. (in press). Predicting students’ short- and long-term academic achievement in higher education: A cross-classified multilevel study. Learning and Individual Differences. Impact Factor: 3,8. Ranking Q1. PDF available here.
